NUMMI PLANT CLOSURE - Impact on Local and Bay Area Industrial Real Estate Market 1/12/2010
The NUMMI plant, in operation since 1984, is the largest employer in the City of Fremont, with 5,200 employees. The action to close the plant this March, taken by Toyota Motor Corp. were accelerated by its joint venture partner, General Motors, withdrawing from the partnership as a result of it bankruptcy filing earlier this year.
The plant is 5.3 million square feet situated on 380 acres of industrial land adjacent to interstate 880. An additional 100 acres serve as a buffer area to the surrounding industrial uses.
The obvious impacts will be the loss of 5,200 jobs, and the ripple effect on the overall local economy. The second tier impact will be the loss of revenue for the third party vendors that once relied on NUMMI’s business, estimated to effect as many as 15,000-20,000 jobs. One of the local vendors in the Tri-Valley is Johnson Controls in Livermore, who provides interior assemblies to NUMMI. As these companies sell or sublease, there will be another wave of vacant space coming onto the market. As a result, overall the market will be driven lower as these companies attempt to “quick sale” or sublease their space.
The City of Fremont will feel the effects in direct loss of property tax, sales tax, business licenses, permits, and payroll taxes, once provided by NUMMI. 730 of the employees at NUMMI live in Fremont. The redevelopment of the site, which may take years, will be encouraged by local, state, and federal incentives. The site has much potential, given that the factory itself is relatively modern, it is rail served, has excellent highway access, and the future warm springs BART station is being built adjacent to the site.
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